Generative AI is poised to reshape the supply of premium screen content, with VP of Chinese online media giant Tencent and CEO of Tencent Video Sun Zhonghuai forecasting that as much as a third of long-form film and animation could be “dominated by or deeply involving AI” within two years, despite lingering concerns around performance fidelity and visual consistency.

Speaking at a forum at the 7th Hainan Island International Film Festival (HIIFF) Sun predicted a dramatic shift in premium television and film content creation in the next few years.

“From a time dimension, looking at the next one or two years, we have every reason to expect visible changes in the platform’s content supply structure,” Sun stated. “In core categories such as film, television, and animation, works dominated by or deeply involving AI could potentially reach a proportion of between 10 and 30%.”

Pointing to short form content, Sun concluded that the race has already been won by gen-AI products.

“Short content is like fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), ruthlessly pursuing efficiency,” said Sun. “In this regard, the short dramas and short animations we know have already taken the lead, drastically lowering costs. We estimate that AI-native companies for short animations now account for nearly 30% of the market.”

Despite the bullish forecast, several factors still remain obstacles for generative AI in long-form content, including the ability to maintain consistency and the inability to replicate human performances.

“AI video technology still cannot resolve issues of visual consistency and controllability,” Sun explained. “With extended shot durations, the drifting of details in characters becomes very obvious.”

Sun also suggested that performances by human actors contained micro-expressions and micro-movements that could not be replicated by current generation AI, leaving gaps in emotional tension and subtlety.

He also noted that most mainstream AI-generated content is limited to 1080p HD resolution, which doesn’t match 4K, or DCI theatrical release standards.

However, Sun emphasized that these hurdles are temporary and predicted that AI would allow filmmakers to revisit ambitious genres previously deemed too financially risky for studios to greenlight.

“Genres that were ignored in the past due to market risks, such as grand Sci-Fi and grand ‘Age of Discovery’ narratives, will be revived with the cost reductions that AI offers,” said Sun.

To meet this future, Sun revealed that Tencent Video is aggressively integrating AI tools into its traditional workflows, stating that they were currently implementing AI in early stage concept design, pre-vis and rotoscoping. In LED virtual production, AI is being used to create the complex digital sets needed as background scenery.

Sun countered criticism that AI would lead to unemployment in the creative industries, stating that Tencent considered talent development a top priority at the company.

“The talent model for future film production requires polymaths; in more vivid terms, we need art engineers or tech artists, and we have been working with top colleges and institutes to develop them,” said Sun.

“We are actually very lucky to be able to experience a true Renaissance era in the film industry. The most exciting human experiences come when going through the process of uncertainty to certainty.”