Writing — Toby Ord tobyord.com

Broad Timelines

tobyord.com·13w13 weeks ago

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Hazard Rates for AI Agents Decline as a Task Goes On

tobyord.com·18w18 weeks ago

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Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially?

tobyord.com·24w24 weeks ago

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How Well Does RL Scale?

tobyord.com·32w32 weeks ago·Hacker News

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Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling

tobyord.com·36w36 weeks ago

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The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models

tobyord.com·37w37 weeks ago·Hacker News

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Is There a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents? – Toby Ord

tobyord.com·56w56 weeks ago·Lobsters, Hacker News, Hacker News, Hacker News

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Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance

tobyord.com·32w32 weeks ago·Hacker News

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Inference Scaling and the Log-x Chart

tobyord.com·72w72 weeks ago

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The Scaling Paradox

tobyord.com·73w73 weeks ago·Hacker News

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The Precipice Revisited

tobyord.com·100w100 weeks ago

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On the Value of Advancing Progress

tobyord.com·101w101 weeks ago

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Robust Longterm Comparisons

tobyord.com·108w108 weeks ago

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The Timing of Labour Aimed at Reducing Existential Risk

tobyord.com·167w167 weeks ago

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Remembering Peter Eckersley

tobyord.com·169w169 weeks ago

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Casting the Decisive Vote

tobyord.com·255w255 weeks ago

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