Writing — Toby Ord tobyord.com

Broad Timelines

tobyord.com·6w

Hazard Rates for AI Agents Decline as a Task Goes On

tobyord.com·11w

Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially?

tobyord.com·17w

How Well Does RL Scale?

tobyord.com·25w·Hacker News

Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling

tobyord.com·29w

The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models

tobyord.com·30w·Hacker News

Is There a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents? – Toby Ord

tobyord.com·49w·Lobsters, Hacker News, Hacker News, Hacker News

Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance

tobyord.com·26w·Hacker News

Inference Scaling and the Log-x Chart

tobyord.com·65w

The Scaling Paradox

tobyord.com·66w·Hacker News

The Precipice Revisited

tobyord.com·93w

On the Value of Advancing Progress

tobyord.com·95w

Robust Longterm Comparisons

tobyord.com·101w

The Timing of Labour Aimed at Reducing Existential Risk

tobyord.com·160w

Remembering Peter Eckersley

tobyord.com·162w

Casting the Decisive Vote

tobyord.com·248w

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