Poor weather in Brazil, disruptions across major producing regions tightened 2025 supply

Last updated: December 27, 2025 | 05:05

3 MIN READ

Dubai: Walk into a Dubai café on any weekday morning and you’ll see full tables, steady footfall, and queues that rarely let up. Rising global prices haven’t weakened demand.

*Coffee consumption across the UAE and GCC keeps accelerating, powered by one of the strongest out-of-home coffee cultures anywhere: *

Market value: more than Dh12 billion

About 93% of spending happens in cafés and restaurants

Coffee re-exports passed Dh3.5 billion in 2024

Global arabica futures near $3.54 per pound

US cup prices up almost 20% since early 2023

You live in a market where coffee is tied to routine, work, and social life. That connection shapes how price pressure shows up — and why your daily order still feels non-negotiable.

Beans cost more everywhere

Poor weather in Brazil and disruptions across major producing regions tightened supply this year, pushing arabica futures to record highs. Wholesale prices more than doubled compared with long-term averages, lifting costs for roasters, cafés, and distributors.

In huge consumer markets such as the US, where annual spending tops $100 billion, higher input costs have been passed on directly to customers. The result: almost a fifth added to the price of a regular cup since early 2023.

Rising prices haven’t stopped people drinking coffee, but they have shifted habits. “They’ve not necessarily been cutting back coffee consumption,” said Kona Haque, head of commodities research at ED&F Man. “They’ve been trading down.”

More consumers are buying private-label beans, choosing cheaper formats, and making coffee at home. Machine sales jumped 43% year on year in the UK during last month’s Black Friday period, while international surveys show nearly four in ten coffee drinkers already brew more at home because of rising costs.

Would you trade your morning café routine for a home grinder if prices climbed further?

Why the UAE bucks the trend

Here, consumption continues to grow instead of pulling back. Operators spread higher bean costs across menu design, sourcing strategies, and operational efficiencies rather than relying on fast price increases. That approach preserves the café experience — something the UAE consumer still prioritises.

Think about what keeps you returning:

A familiar barista who knows your order

A roast profile you trust

A space that feels part of your day

A premium experience you can’t recreate in your kitchen

Scale strengthens that ecosystem. Green coffee imports across the GCC are rising steadily. Dubai’s warehouse facilities, cupping labs, quality-control centres, and trading platforms reinforce its position as a regional gateway for producers, traders, and buyers across the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Those investments help cafés manage costs and maintain consistency even as prices fluctuate worldwide.

If you’ve toured a roastery in Al Quoz or visited a cupping lab to sample origins, you’ve already seen how infrastructure supports your cup.

How demand reshapes market

Saudi Arabia posts some of the highest per-capita consumption figures globally. Egypt and Morocco are recording rapid growth in imports and demand. With more than 60% of the population across MENA under 35, coffee operates as a lifestyle product as much as a drink.

That demographic momentum will be on display next month at the fifth edition of World of Coffee Dubai, organised by DXB LIVE with the Specialty Coffee Association. Expect packed halls, new varieties, equipment showcases, and buyers searching for ways to stand out in a saturated but expanding market.

Where do your habits place you — experimenting with single-origin beans at home, or loyal to a café where the staff know your name?

What this means for your routine

The UAE’s trajectory stands apart from many mature markets:

Prices won’t fall quickly, but noticeable spikes may stay limited

Café culture will keep dominating daily consumption

Premiumisation and specialty options will expand

Home brewing will grow, but won’t replace out-of-home demand

Experience, quality, and consistency will keep driving decisions

Rising costs haven’t reduced demand because your expectations remain anchored in experience. As long as cafés feel like essential social spaces — places where you work, meet, or pause — demand is likely to keep rising.

Would anything persuade you to trade that experience for a cheaper cup at home, or does your café remain worth every dirham?

Justin is a personal finance author and seasoned business journalist with over a decade of experience. He makes it his mission to break down complex financial topics and make them clear, relatable, and relevant—helping everyday readers navigate today’s economy with confidence. Before returning to his Middle Eastern roots, where he was born and raised, Justin worked as a Business Correspondent at Reuters, reporting on equities and economic trends across both the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.

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